Gold is currently respecting a major resistance level at $3,345, which I highlighted in our Sunday Weekly Analysis. This level represents a key order block on the H4 chart and coincides with the gap fill left from last Monday. Price action has shown hesitation here, indicating the presence of significant institutional activity.
đ Technical Breakdown
đš Current Zone: $3,345 â Order Block + Resistance
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Gold has filled the imbalance left on Previous Monday and is now reacting at the $3,345 level.
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We are observing signs of profit-taking and potential distribution from institutions at this zone.
đģ Support Zones to Watch
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$3,250 â Major H4 Support:
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This is the nearest strong support level where we may see a full retracement.
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Ideal for re-entry on bullish confirmation.
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$3,292 â Minor Accumulation Support:
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This zone is also an order block, identified by previous accumulation before last week’s rally.
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A potential scaling-in zone for aggressive buyers.
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đ Trade Setup Plan
| Condition | Action |
|---|---|
| Price pulls back to $3,292 or $3,250 | Look for bullish rejection on H1/H4 |
| Confirmation via bullish engulfing / FVG reaction | Enter long |
| Target | $3,345 (retest) then $3,400+ |
| SL | Below $3,240 (safe below H4 support) |
đ Fundamental Perspective
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US GDP shrank by 0.3% in Q1 2025, pointing toward a slowing economy. This is fueling fears of stagflation, a historically bullish scenario for gold.
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The Federal Reserve remains cautious about cutting rates despite market expectations. This hesitation is keeping markets uncertain.
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Geopolitical tensions (particularly in Ukraine) continue to add safe-haven demand for gold.
đ§ Institutional Sentiment
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Central banks remain net buyers of gold, especially in Asia and the Middle East.
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ETFs and futures positioning show increased long exposure.
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However, major Wall Street analysts maintain that if geopolitical tensions ease, gold could potentially close below $3,000 by year-end 2025.
đ MJ Forex Academy Takeaway
Gold is currently at a make-or-break level. While the broader trend remains bullish, we are due for a pullback. Two key buy zones stand out:
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$3,292 (minor OB + accumulation)
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$3,250 (major support on H4)
Fundamentals remain supportive in the short term due to global uncertainty, but watch for changes in the Fed stance or geopolitical news that could shift sentiment.
đĸ Final Thoughts
This trade idea is based on our Smart Money Concept (SMC) methodology. Always wait for price confirmation and manage your risk strictly. Avoid emotional entries and stay disciplined.
đ If you’re part of our MJ Forex Academy inner circle, mark these zones and prepare for live discussion in our evening session.
đ¨ Stay Safe â Stay Disciplined
đī¸ Mehrullah Jamali
MJ Forex Academy | Turning Knowledge into Capital