Gold Weekly Forecast (May 26–30, 2025)

Comprehensive Technical, Fundamental & Sentiment Analysis

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Executive Summary

Gold has extended its bullish momentum, closing the week at $3,357 after touching a low of $3,200 in weekly candle. As forecasted in last week’s MJ Forex Academy report, the price successfully filled the gap and achieved the target of $3,350, confirming the strength of the underlying bullish trend. Going into next week, technical structure, macroeconomic conditions, and sentiment dynamics all align to support continued upside potential in gold.

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Technical Analysis

Weekly Chart Structure

The weekly candle has closed with a bullish engulfing pattern, a strong signal of trend continuation. The candle opened at $3,200 and closed at $3,357 with very minor rejection from the upper wick, suggesting aggressive institutional buying pressure and minimal selling.

✅ Bullish Engulfing confirms renewed buyer dominance
✅ Weekly close near highs reinforces upside bias

Daily Time Frame

Gold has been printing daily bullish formations, with only a brief intraday correction on Thursday, likely driven by short-term profit-taking. The overall daily structure remains bullish with strong body candles and no significant bearish signs.

4-Hour (H4) Chart Analysis

• The H4 time frame shows a clear bullish market structure, with consecutive Higher Highs (HH) and Higher Lows (HL).

• Volume profile continues to show strength on the buying side, particularly at swing low rejections.

• Support Zones (SBR):

  • $3,240 – Key H4 Support-Become-Resistance zone, potential re-entry zone on retracement

  • $3,285 – Strong H4 support, last demand zone before breakout

Next Week Trade Outlook

• Buy Zone: $3,240–$3,285

• Target Zone: $3,430

• Invalidation Level (Short-term): Daily close below $3,200

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Fundamental Analysis

Macroeconomic Outlook

The major fundamental catalyst for gold’s recent surge lies in renewed geopolitical and trade war fears:

• Donald Trump’s New Tariff Proposal: Trump has announced a policy targeting companies that manufacture goods outside the U.S. This new “manufacturing penalty tariff” is seen as the next evolution of his trade war playbook.

• Impact on Global Markets: This move introduces economic uncertainty and potential supply chain disruptions, prompting global investors to seek safety in non-yielding safe-haven assets like gold.

Additionally:

• Central Bank Gold Purchases continue, led by China and India, diversifying from dollar holdings and buffering their economies against future sanctions.

• U.S. Economic Data (especially PCE inflation and jobless claims next week) will be closely watched for Fed policy implications. A dovish tilt may accelerate gold’s upside.

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Sentiment Analysis

Retail Sentiment

Retail traders remain cautiously bullish. Many took profits around the $3,500 level, but most are viewing any dips near $3,285–$3,240 as strong buying opportunities. The broader retail view anticipates continued strength through Q2–Q3 2025.

Institutional Sentiment

Institutional interest in gold remains elevated, especially after the breakout above $3,300:

• Central bank accumulation is adding structural demand.

• Hedge funds and asset managers are rotating capital from equities to commodities due to uncertainty in U.S. tech regulation and tariffs.

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Conclusion & Trade Plan

All indicators—technical, fundamental, and sentiment—support a bullish continuation scenario for gold in the week ahead. Traders should watch for pullbacks into $3,240–$3,285 for potential long entries with a target of $3,430.

Key Takeaway: Gold is in a high-momentum bullish phase supported by macro uncertainty, structural buying, and technical strength. Maintain a buy-on-dips bias, especially if price respects the $3,240–$3,285 zone.

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MJ Forex Academy Outlook Summary

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