Meharullah Baloch, Author at MJ Forex Academy

The gold market continues to display resilience and strength, offering profitable opportunities for both intraday traders and medium-term investors. After a highly rewarding trade setup highlighted in yesterday’s market brief—where we advised buying from the $3,290–$3,280 support zone—gold surged nearly 500 pips, validating our analysis. Today, the bias remains decisively bullish, with multiple confluences supporting another leg up in the current rally. 📈 Technical Landscape: Precision Entry at Key FVG and Golden Zone From a technical standpoint, gold has shown exceptional respect for structured price action levels. The previous demand zone between $3,290–$3,280, which aligned with intraday fair value gaps (FVG) and structural support on the H1/H4 charts, provided a textbook bounce, propelling prices significantly higher. For today’s trading session: Buy Zone: $3,240 – $3,250 Technical Justification: H4 Fair Value Gap (FVG) Fib Golden Zone Structural Demand Zone Profit Target: $3,330 Projected Gain: ~900 pips This setup not only follows Smart Money Concepts (SMC) but also aligns with major liquidity zones where institutional buying pressure is often observed. 🧠 Sentiment Analysis: Market Consensus Turns Bullish The sentiment surrounding gold is turning increasingly bullish as market participants seek refuge from macroeconomic uncertainty: Prominent Predictions: Robert Kiyosaki, renowned financial educator, recently forecasted gold to reach $25,000/oz, citing deteriorating trust in fiat currencies. JP Morgan issued a bullish report expecting gold to hit $4,000/oz by Q2 2026, driven by persistent inflation and global instability. COT Report: Shows an increase in net long institutional positions, indicating professional traders are positioning for sustained upside. ETF Inflows: Growing inflows from Western markets suggest renewed investor confidence and appetite for gold amid geopolitical uncertainties. 📊 Fundamental Outlook: Central Banks & Macro Tailwinds The underlying fundamentals for gold remain robust and broadly supportive of higher prices: Federal Reserve Policy: With the Fed holding rates steady at 4.5%, and growing expectations of a rate cut in H2 2025, real yields are set to decline—boosting gold’s appeal as a non-yielding asset. Geopolitical Tensions: Escalating conflicts involving Russia, China, and the Middle East continue to underpin gold’s role as a safe haven. Central Bank Accumulation: Nations including China, India, Poland, and Turkey have aggressively increased their gold reserves this year, reflecting declining confidence in the dollar-based financial system. US Dollar Weakness: Recent softness in the dollar index (DXY) has further enhanced gold’s purchasing power across non-USD regions, stimulating global demand. Positive Sentiment Trends: NLP algorithms flag an 82% net positive sentiment on gold across institutional research, news media, and policy commentary. Forecast Models: NN models anticipate further upside toward the $3,350–$3,400 region within the next 5–10 trading sessions. 🎯 Strategic Conclusion Gold is technically and fundamentally aligned for a bullish continuation. With the market consolidating above key FVG and structural zones, the current setup offers a low-risk, high-reward opportunity for buyers near $3,240, aiming for an upside extension to $3,330 and beyond. Investors and traders should remain focused on macroeconomic cues—especially upcoming Fed statements and inflation data—as they will play a pivotal role in confirming this bullish breakout. However, barring any unexpected shifts in market tone, the path of least resistance remains upward for gold.

Author: Meharullah Baloch

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