Bias: Bearish | Entry: $3,300 | Target: $3,240 | Invalidation: Above $3,335
🔍 Market Snapshot
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading near $3,300 in the Friday session, showing signs of weakness after failing to sustain levels above $3,335 earlier in the week. The market sentiment has shifted notably after a key U.S. Supreme Court ruling this week, which has had a direct impact on gold’s safe-haven demand.
🧠 Fundamental Drivers
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U.S. Supreme Court Ruling Blocks Trump Tariffs
Earlier in the week, the U.S. Supreme Court blocked former President Trump’s attempt to reintroduce reciprocal tariffs on select trading partners. This unexpected legal barrier eased global trade tensions, boosting investor confidence and reducing safe-haven flows into gold.-
Impact: Diminished geopolitical uncertainty ➝ lower demand for gold.
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Stronger U.S. Dollar and Anticipated Inflation Data
The U.S. dollar index firmed up by 0.2% this week. Additionally, traders are awaiting the release of April’s Core PCE Price Index later today, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. The expectation of steady inflation strengthens the case for the Fed to hold rates higher for longer — another bearish factor for gold.-
Impact: Strong dollar and Fed policy caution ➝ downward pressure on gold.
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💬 Sentiment Analysis
Recent financial media and retail commentary show a marked shift from bullish to cautious-to-bearish tone. NLP models processing over 100+ news sources and social feeds show a rise in phrases like “profit-taking,” “trend reversal,” and “market relief” tied to gold, especially post-court ruling. This implies waning sentiment for further upside in gold prices in the short term.
📊 Technical Outlook
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Key Resistance: $3,335
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Key Support: $3,240
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Current Price: ~$3,300
Gold has failed to reclaim the $3,335 level this week — a key inflection zone. As long as price remains below this threshold, the broader bias remains bearish across multiple timeframes.
From a pattern perspective, the recent lower highs and breakdown from minor support indicate continued supply in the market. If $3,300 is retested and rejected during intraday moves, it could serve as a low-risk short entry.
✅ Trade Idea: Sell on Rally
Sell XAU/USD around $3,300
Stop-loss: Above $3,335
Take-profit: $3,240
Rationale:
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Fundamental tone supports risk-on behavior ➝ less demand for gold.
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Sentimental shift is bearish, as per NLP models and social media analysis.
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Technically, price is below key resistance and printing bearish structures.
⚠️ Risk Note
Above $3,335, especially on a daily close, would invalidate the bearish outlook and signal potential trend reversal. Monitor U.S. inflation data closely as it could trigger volatility heading into the weekend.